🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market User Profited $436,000 on Bets on the Ouster of Maduro. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A trader profited close to $500,000 on the ouster of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was publicly declared, sparking debate about the possibility of profiting from non-public details of the event. Market Movement in Predictions Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a crypto-powered platform, that the leader would be removed from office by the month's conclusion surged in the period preceding former President Trump announced on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been taken into custody. A single trader, which joined the platform last month and made four bets, all on political events in Venezuela, made more than $nearly half a million from a starting bet of over $32,000. The identity is unknown. This unidentified trader had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Market Signals Before News Break Platform data shows that users estimated the likelihood of Maduro's exit at just 6.5% in the late afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. Yet the market's assessment had increased to over 10% by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the morning of Saturday, pointing to a sudden change in positions just before the social media post was made. "This particular bet has all the characteristics of a transaction based on inside information," commented an industry expert. A small number of other platform users also made tens of thousands of dollars from bets on the same outcome. Regulatory Scrutiny Emerges Some lawmakers are starting to take note. A new rule presented on Monday would prevent government employees from participating on forecasting platforms if they have "insider details" related to a wager. Industry Context Forecasting platforms have surged in popularity in recent years, with users able to predict everything from elections to political events. This sector were examined under the previous administration. Yet it has found a more favorable environment during the current presidency. Insider trading is a crime in the stock market, but there are more ambiguous rules in the prediction market arena. An official representative for a competing service said their site "explicitly prohibits trading on insider information of any form."