Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
