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Growing worries are present about the possibility of armed conflict between East African neighbors, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as aggressive discourse has ratcheted up in the last month.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for access to the Red Sea through Eritrea has provoked a fierce rhetorical conflict.

Ethiopian Prime Minister initially stated publicly in the previous year that his government's maritime access was an existential matter, comments that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Relations between the both governments have often been tense. After a long-standing struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a long Red Sea coastline, officially seceded from Ethiopia in 1993, leaving it without sea access.

In 1998, a military clash erupted in which over a hundred thousand people lost their lives.

Latest Statements from Ethiopia's Leadership

Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted control of Eritrean coastal city of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the boundary - and hinted at the intention to take it by force.

In early September, Abiy said the country's "blunder" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrea's separation would be "addressed tomorrow".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be given back "by force".

Eritrean Response to the Claims

Despite persistent threats from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been limited to brief comments on X from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's push for maritime entry describing it as "dangerous" and a "negative policy" of "irredentism" – a strategy of retaking previous domains.

Eritrean authorities warned on recently that moves to legitimise "flagrant aggression" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Activities on the Ground

There have been little evidence of large-scale army activities in the boundary zones between the two countries.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, national TV has broadcast training completions of thousands of cadets at multiple army bases.

The director of staff section of the armed forces, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, stated recently in an conversation that the defense forces was in a "strong stance" as "many thousands of young people" were enlisting, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Historical Roots of the Dispute

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, the territory was governed by Italian rulers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then controlled by the British military before becoming a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

However in 1962 the ruler cancelled this arrangement and the region became completely integrated into the Ethiopian state.

A extended internal conflict ensued, ending with the government's loss in 1991. Sovereignty was then approved by Eritreans in a vote in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the governments in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the precise positioning of their common border, leading to war in 1998.

Although this ended in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the neighbors continued at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made gestures to Eritrean President President Isaias. The both leaders signed a statement that the war was concluded – a decision that won the Prime Minister the Nobel Peace Prize.

The two governments were then partners in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 armed struggle in the northern region.

Yet relations have subsequently deteriorated again.