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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It often acts as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

However this year's race is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and recent underperformers rising together. Under an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a normal season!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still